DNV, a leading utility evaluation and verification contracting firm, has published the LightingPLUS Market Characterization report. This is a joint study by 11 program administrators (PAs) from the U.S. and Canada, investigates the evolving commercial and industrial (C&I) lighting market. The study focuses on quantifying the remaining opportunities for legacy lighting replacements with LEDs through 2030 and assessing the potential of next-generation (NextGen) LED technologies.
Key Findings:
Market Saturation: The report indicates that the C&I lighting market has entered the “late majority stage” of LED adoption. LEDs constitute approximately 60% of linear fixtures and 75% of national sales. The remaining legacy market primarily exists in smaller buildings and harder-to-reach communities with limited resources.
Declining Legacy Opportunities: Traditional energy savings from replacing legacy lighting systems with LEDs are diminishing as the market becomes saturated. PAs can no longer depend on these conversions for low-cost, high-volume savings.
NextGen Opportunities: The study identifies six NextGen lighting opportunities with the potential to produce program savings:
- Higher-Efficacy LED Replacements: Replacing existing LEDs with more efficient LEDs
- Advanced Lighting Controls (ALC): Implementing networked lighting controls (NLC) and luminaire-level lighting control.
- Redesign LED Retrofits: Comprehensive lighting redesigns beyond one-to-one replacements to optimize lighting levels.
- Demand Management with Lighting: Utilizing lighting as a demand management resource through dimming or shut-off.
- Germicidal UV (GUV): Deploying UV lighting for air sterilization to reduce the spread of infectious diseases
- Tunable Lighting: Using LEDs to modulate light output and spectrum for enhanced occupant well-being.
NextGen Viability: The NextGen opportunities are graded based on their attractiveness and potential for program savings. Higher-efficacy LED replacements and advanced lighting controls received the highest grades (A and B), indicating their viability across large market segments. Redesign LED retrofits, demand management with lighting, germicidal UV, and tunable lighting received lower grades (C and D), suggesting feasibility in niche markets with modest savings potential. See the NextGen grading chart below.
Similar Savings Potential: Legacy conversions and NextGen opportunities have a similar magnitude of savings potential in 2025. However, predicting cost-effectiveness trends for NextGen opportunities is difficult due to declining equipment costs and absolute savings per installed unit.
Methodology:
The study employed a mixed-methods approach, including:
- Interviews with program administrators, manufacturers, and lighting contractors.
- Development of a quantitative market model to forecast lighting technology saturation through 2030.
- Desk reviews to assess the potential of NextGen lighting opportunities.
Recommendations:
The report suggests that PAs need to adapt their lighting program designs and approaches to access the higher-cost savings associated with NextGen technologies while still capturing the remaining viable savings from legacy conversions.
The study emphasizes the importance of targeting smaller buildings in harder-to-reach communities to maximize savings from legacy replacements. It also highlights the need for program adaptations to address the evolving market dynamics and capitalize on NextGen lighting opportunities.
The full DNV LightingPlus Market Characterization report can be found here.
All images: DNV LightingPlus Market Characterization Report
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