The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its forecast for the 2024 winter holiday shopping season, projecting steady growth in consumer spending. According to the NRF, holiday spending is expected to increase between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to 2023, reaching a total of $979.5 billion to $989 billion in November and December.

NRF attributes this growth to a fundamentally healthy economy and strong job market, which continue to support American families’ capacity to spend during the holiday season. The forecast aligns with the NRF’s overall projection for annual retail sales growth in 2024, which is also expected to be between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

A significant contributor to this growth is expected to come from online and non-store sales. These are projected to increase between 8% and 9%, totaling $295.1 billion to $297.9 billion, up from $273.3 billion in the previous year.

To meet the anticipated increase in consumer demand, retailers are expected to hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year. This figure is slightly lower than the 509,000 seasonal hires in the previous year, with some hiring potentially occurring earlier in October to support holiday buying events.

The 2024 holiday shopping season will be five days shorter than last year, with 26 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Other factors that could influence spending include the economic impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the 2024 U.S. presidential election, although its effect on spending is difficult to measure.

The NRF’s holiday forecast is based on various economic indicators, including consumer spending, disposable personal income, employment, wages, inflation, and previous monthly retail sales data. The calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail, and defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31.

Despite some potential challenges, the NRF’s forecast suggests a positive outlook for the 2024 holiday shopping season, with steady growth expected in both traditional and online retail sales. More information on the NRF forecast can be found here.

David Shiller

David Shiller is the Publisher of LightNOW, and President of Lighting Solution Development, a North American consulting firm providing business development services to advanced lighting manufacturers. The ALA awarded David the Pillar of the Industry Award. David has co-chaired ALA’s Engineering Committee since 2010. David established MaxLite’s OEM component sales into a multi-million dollar division. He invented GU24 lamps while leading ENERGY STAR lighting programs for the US EPA. David has been published in leading lighting publications, including LD+A, enLIGHTenment Magazine, LEDs Magazine, and more.

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