The American Institute of Architect’s (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast panel has projected nonresidential building spending in late 2023 and beyond and predicts that spending on buildings will increase by 20% this year. This would be the highest rate since the years leading up to the Great Recession. The panel found an extremely strong start in the first half of this year and strong gains for H2 2023 before slowing to a more moderate pace of expansion in 2024.

The strongest sector was manufacturing, where spending is projected to grow more than 50% over last year’s very healthy performance. Major gains are expected across all sectors, including commercial, institutional, and industrial construction categories, with each projected to increase at a double-digit rate.

Spending on nonresidential buildings increased by more than 10% last year; however, once inflation is factored in, real increases were much lower. This means that growth in new building spending and renovations this year may not translate into similar economic growth or employment opportunities. Inflation in construction is moderating, leading to optimism by the panel for this year and beyond. Learn more here.

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David Shiller

David Shiller is the Publisher of LightNOW, and President of Lighting Solution Development, a North American consulting firm providing business development services to advanced lighting manufacturers. The ALA awarded David the Pillar of the Industry Award. David has co-chaired ALA’s Engineering Committee since 2010. David established MaxLite’s OEM component sales into a multi-million dollar division. He invented GU24 lamps while leading ENERGY STAR lighting programs for the US EPA. David has been published in leading lighting publications, including LD+A, enLIGHTenment Magazine, LEDs Magazine, and more.

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