A study funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates the energy savings opportunity associated with advanced lighting research conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) related to glare, flicker, color rendering, non-visual effects of lighting, and outdoor environmental effects of lighting.

Part one of the study, conducted by Skumatz Economic Research Associates (SERA), was designed to estimate the buyer value of advanced lamps and luminaires. SERA’s research focused on three lighting product categories: commercial 4-foot linear LED luminaires, residential general service LED lamps, and street/roadway luminaires. These products were selected as representatives of the larger market sectors from which they were drawn (commercial, residential, and outdoor). Using descriptions of hypothetical future luminaires likely to result from PNNL research, SERA queried potential buyers of luminaires, asking for their views on the value of these luminaires. SERA then analyzed the responses using a purchase-price effects methodology, similar to that used by utility energy efficiency programs to estimate difficult-to-quantify non-energy benefits. Using this methodology, SERA estimated the value perceived by buyers of future products containing technologies or features likely to result from PNNL research.

Part two of the study, conducted by Guidehouse Consulting, applied the SERA estimates of value as inputs to the lighting market model used by DOE to estimate future energy savings from advanced lamps and luminaires. Developed by Guidehouse for the DOE Lighting R&D program, this model has been used by DOE for more than a decade to estimate the energy savings potential of LED technology. The model translated SERA’s findings into estimates of energy saving opportunity.

Key findings include:

• Advanced LED products added 334 tBtu of source energy savings to projected LED energy savings in 2035. That’s an additional 31 billion kWh of electricity saved in U.S. buildings in 2035, above and beyond what LEDs are already expected to provide, and equivalent to about 10% of total lighting energy use across commercial, outdoor, and residential sectors in the year 2035.
• Surveyed lighting users saw substantial value in the lighting improvements sought from planned research, with incremental long-term perceived values equivalent to 43 – 46% of the estimated baseline luminaire prices.

The findings also confirm that the methodology used holds promise for identifying energy-saving opportunities that may be difficult to quantify for advanced features.

To learn more, download the full report.

Craig DiLouie

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