A Closer Look at Latest DOE LED Energy Savings Forecast

Craig DiLouie September 29, 2016

A recent contribution to tED Magazine. Reprinted with permission.

The Department of Energy (DOE) recently updated its bi-annual report, Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications. This major report models adoption of LEDs in the U.S. general lighting market.

In 2015, LED products comprised an estimated 6 percent of the total installed stock, up from 3 percent in 2013. DOE forecasts 30 percent penetration by 2020 and 59 percent penetration by 2025. The forecast is partly based on a revised assumed renovation rate, which DOE increased from 5 to 10 percent. This recognizes the growing market for lighting upgrades in existing construction.

The outdoor stationary market leads in LED penetration, with estimated 19 percent penetration in 2015 and projected 57 percent by 2020. The commercial market is also growing, with an estimated 12 percent penetration in 2015 and projected 36 percent by 2020.

Strongest penetration has occurred in three markets:

• A-type lamps, which accounted for 46 percent of installed LED lighting and 14 percent of the energy savings;

• directional lighting, 18 percent of installed LED lighting and 29 percent of the energy savings; and

• linear lighting, 16 percent of installed LED lighting and 20 percent of the energy savings.

By 2020, annual energy savings from LED lighting will reach about 293 MWh. While direct load reduction will generate the majority of these energy savings, lighting controls will account for a significant portion. By 2035, DOE expects connected lighting and lighting controls to generate one-third of all energy savings.

Let’s look at three submarkets in detail—linear, low- and high-bay, and area and roadway lighting:

• Linear lighting: High-performance LED lighting will have a strong impact on this market. Current penetration is 3 percent. Though fluorescent systems offer efficacies as high as 90 lumens/W, both linear LED luminaires and replacement lamps already exceed that and are continually improving. By 2020, LED luminaires and lamps will penetrate 16 percent of the linear luminaire stock by 2020, according to DOE.

• Low- and high-bay lighting: Fluorescent lighting against dominates in this increasingly popular market. Again, LED is poised for rapid growth. LED luminaires penetrated about 6 percent of the installed stock in 2015, while high-wattage LED retrofit lamps represented less than one percent. Penetration is expected to increase to 38 percent by 2020 (39 percent commercial, 35 percent industrial), according to DOE.

• Area and roadway lighting: LEDs are well suited to these applications because of the directionality, durability and longevity of the light source. Metal halide and high-pressure sodium dominate this market, but LED has already achieved a significant 21 percent share of the installed base. DOE forecasted penetration to increase to 66 percent by 2020. DOE noted that as with other markets, there is an initial uptake in LED replacement lamps followed by their decline relative to LED luminaires.

Click here to download the report.